There’s not a lot of good news to report this week, based on the latest economic reports that crossed our desks.
ACT Research is tempering expectations for the Class 8 truck market this year due to uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and its potential economic impact.
Trucking conditions deteriorated in January, according to an index that tracks the five metrics with the largest influence on trucking. And the spot market remains challenged for dry van and refrigerated haulers; only flatdeckers are feeling any joy on the spot market.
Commercial vehicle market faces risks
U.S. economic and trade policy is putting the Class 8 truck market at risk, according to a new analysis from ACT Research, which is tempering expectations for the market this year.
“Whether the slowdown in orders is a result of moderating economic activity, a response to the newfound uncertainty, or both remains an open question,” reports Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Preliminary Class 8 orders dropped 34% y/y to 18,300 units in February. Seasonally adjusted, Class 8 orders fell 28% from January to 16,700 units, and a 200k unit SAAR — the lowest SA Class 8 order volume in nearly two years.”
Vieth added, “With the tractor market already at a low ebb, tariffs are starting to weigh on business decision making, reducing early-in-the-year economic expectations. In addition to uncertainty leading to corporate indecision, the apparent policy path is likely to weigh on key U.S. Class 8 market indicators, including freight volumes and, by extension, freight rates, consumer spending, and sentiment.”
ACT reports the industry is likely, “racing to add as much inventory as they can before tariffs are fully enacted.”
The industry forecaster cut its 2025 forecasts, while noting the threat of more tariffs to come are likely boosting activity in the near-term. “As is always he case with pulling activity forward, there are paybacks,” Vieth cautioned.
Trucking conditions weakened in January
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index read -2.56 in January, mirroring the positive reading of 2.67 seen in December 2024.
The index was pulled down by higher diesel prices and weak freight rates, volume and utilization.
“January proved to be tough for carriers as we anticipated. Although we still forecast an improving market for trucking companies in the months ahead, we remain very concerned that the great uncertainty introduced by tariffs – and especially the lack of clarity over scope and timing – will chill activity and investments that drive freight demand,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice-president, trucking.
“We do not see any impetus for further significant declines in capacity, so carriers will need stronger volumes to tighten the market and set the stage for stronger freight rates.”
Spot market rates eased
Dry van and reefer rates eased in the week ended March 7, according to Truckstop. Flatbed rates continued their upward trajectory, reaching their highest level since July.
Refrigerated rates, meanwhile, fell to their lowest level since June 2020.
“The decrease in refrigerated spot rates was generally in line with expectations for that week of the year, but the dry van increase was not,” Truckstop reported.
“Dry van spot rates have decreased week over week only three times in a comparable week since at least 2008. During the current week (week ending March 14), dry van rates usually fall while flatbed rates usually rise. Refrigerated rates have been less constant but have mostly fallen in recent years.”
The Market Demand Index rose to 92.5, its strongest level in eight weeks, thanks to a reduction in truck postings coupled with a small gain in load volumes.
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